News/talk stations have traditionally seen their ratings spike in the run-up to a Presidential election.  Programmers are no doubt expecting the same thing this year, especially with their hosts positioning this race as a choice between the continuation of civilization and 1,000 years of darkness.  But will talk stations generate epic ratings this fall?  Maybe not, according to one veteran political observer.

In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Peggy Noonan noted that by several indicators Americans are showing a distinct lack of interest in the Presidential race.  Here’s her case:

[Voter turn-out] in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri this week were all down, Iowa and New Hampshire were flat, Florida, that Little America, was down almost 15%. All this in a volatile race, in a time of crisis.

What are the reasons? Maybe it’s the increasing negativity of the campaign, maybe it’s widespread dissatisfaction with the field. Maybe it’s that, and more.

There are some small indicators something else may be going on. Cable news ratings, which should spike in an election year, and which indicate interest on both the left and the right, are relatively flat, with mild increases here and there. Broadcast evening news ratings continue their gradual decline. One network anchor, on being urged to capture more of the joy and ferocity of the Republican contest, sighed. “Every time we show those guys, our numbers go down.” A major website operator tells me people aren’t clicking on political stories.

But it’s not confined to the Republican side. Look at President Obama’s State of the Union numbers. That speech famously blankets all television and radio networks. His first speech to a joint session of Congress, in February 2009, drew 52 million viewers. A year later the State of the Union had an understandable falloff to about 48 million. In 2011, another fall: 43 million watched. A few weeks ago his 2012 State of the Union drew just 38 million.  From 52 to 38: That’s quite a decline. And again, during a continuing crisis and in a presidential election year. As for the president’s interviews and other speeches, well, when was the last time you heard someone ask excitedly, “Did you hear what Obama said?”

Whose numbers are up? The NFL’s.

Maybe the story the political class is missing is not “They don’t like the Republican field,” or “They don’t like Obama.” Maybe the story is that people are tuning out altogether. Maybe they’re bored with politics, and most especially with politicians. Maybe they think our government can’t solve anything. Maybe, even, our political class has done such a good job depicting the crisis we’re in that the American people, with their low faith in institutions, think nothing, really, can be done about it. So let’s check out. Let’s watch the game.

Of course, it might be argued that none of the above applies to talk radio because many of its core listeners are diehard fans of politics who are living for President Obama’s November ouster.  But that thing about cable news ratings should give pause.  And are those hardcores going to be enough to get you to your fall ratings goals?

The lessons here:

1. Be judicious when the boss asks for those fall ratings projections.

2. Make sure you are offering your listeners more than just election information and jabber during the spring and summer – especially if the GOP nomination is wrapped up early.

Do you think the campaign has been driving numbers on your station?  I’d especially like to hear from programmers in states that have already held their primaries.